Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
